Surviving Disasters in Japan

Today, just like last Friday, it’s hard not to focus on the horror and grief brought about by the huge earthquake and subsequent tsunamis that have killed tens of thousands in Japan. The emergencies at Japan’s nuclear power stations at Fukushima, have added a further layer of shock and alarm to the experience.

The ability of a natural event to seriously undermine power generation in a highly advanced economy such as Japan’s is sobering. Among other effects, it has led many, including the Swiss and German governments to re-think their nuclear energy policy. In Japan itself, businesses are thought to be staying shut in order to help the country provide power for essential requirements in these crisis conditions.

But while individuals in Japan and across the world have to come to terms with the shocking events that have hit the country, the markets have panicked. Share values have dropped in many Japanese firms, including, not surprisingly, power companies, such as Tokyo Electric Power, which runs the stricken nuclear plants. Other sectors of the Japanese economy have been hit by frenzied share selling, including the big car firms, Toyota and Nissan. Across Europe, too, shares have been affected, particularly those in insurance sectors, which will, of course, be hit hard by claims once the recovery and rebuilding starts.

In response the Bank of Japan has pumped trillions of Yen into the financial system, and the government there has talked of a spending package to stimulate the economy. Some observers doubt the wisdom of this action given the level of Japan’s government debt, which is estimated to stand at close to 200% of the country’s GDP. Given that Japan is a sovereign issuer of its own currency, though, there should be no problem sustaining the increased level of public spending that recovery from this set of disasters will require.

Don’t expect that, though, to be the main message coming from analysts of Japan’s economy in the months to come, once this initial post-disaster period has passed.