Taxing Time for Egypt

The tumult and the horror of the revolt in Egypt during January and February, which ended with the military council taking interim control of the country before elections later this year, was screened across the world. However, little thought was given to the day-to-day problems that the upheaval would cause the Egyptian economy, despite the widespread acknowledgement that former president Hosni Mubarak had to relinquish power.

To western eyes the biggest problem for Egypt was in the abrupt halt brought to the country’s tourism industry. Certainly, tourism is a vital sector in terms of providing employment for the Egypt’s burgeoning population. It also brings in foreign currency, as tourists exchange their holiday money for Egyptian Pounds. In addition to the country’s traditional tourist attractions, such as Luxor, Aswan and Cairo, there are comparatively recently developed coastal resorts such as Sharm El Sheikh.

But while Egypt’s tourism industry is undoubtedly important (and its plans to achieve 14 million visitors this year will have been dented by the revolution, and perhaps also by yesterday’s hoax bomb threat) we must remember that the country has other key industries and its economy has to keep moving, whatever the trials of the tourism sector.

This article in the weekly Al-Ahram newspaper, which is produced in Cairo, shows how everyday concerns of the state are still important. The piece reported that despite the chaotic scenes that we have witnessed in recent weeks, the work of the Egyptian tax authorities has been proceeding as usual. With activity in the tax offices apparently ‘unchanged’, there has not been a fall in tax files submitted this year.

The Higher Council of the Armed Forces, which is in temporary control of the country, took the decision to allow taxpayers to make their payments in three interest-free instalments this year, to allow all files to be processed in time; but it seems that the majority of taxpayers preferred to pay up in cash. The head of the Egyptian tax authority said that many large organisations paid taxes earlier than normal and in dollars to help the country in its vital transition period.

But it’s not all good news on the tax front: this year’s tax payments reflect business carried out before the Egyptian uprising. This means that the impact of the slowdown in tax payments will only be felt next year. This is when the authorities expect a steep drop in tax revenues of 30 to 40%. They report that the major organisations and sectors have been hit the hardest by the disruption caused by civil strife. These include the Suez Canal, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and the tourism sector.

It will be interesting to see what the Egyptian authorities do to try to make good the expected shortfall in tax revenues next year. A 2% tax on capital market profits has already been suggested. A surefire way of generating higher tax revenue, though, is to increase the number of taxpayers. This will mean increasing the number of employees receiving wages and salaries sufficiently high to trigger tax payments. Egypt will need to grow its economy in order to produce this outcome. With high unemployment rates, especially among young adults, this policy would be recommended in any case.