With Egypt now facing a five month wait until parliamentary elections occur in September, good and bad news emerges almost daily from the country. Yesterdays blog entry reported on the surprisingly fast rate of tax payments being filed by Egyptian companies and individuals. The day before, a bomb hoax on a flight from the UK bound for holiday destination Sharm El-Sheikh, raised the prospect of continued disruption to Egypt’s important tourism industry.
More examples can be found today. The cut in forecast economic growth to 2.5%, brings with it fears for how Egypt will provide jobs and social security for its citizens, many of whom have for a long time been dissatisfied with their lives. Some observers have greater worries about the threats to regional stability posed by the removal of Mubarak from power. They point to renewed dialogue between Egypt and Iran, and mentions of military intervention to support the Palestinians in Gaza in the event of Israeli attacks.
No doubt some of this involves political gesturing in advance of the elections, with candidates wishing to seize ground from the Muslim Brotherhood, who many fear will want to set up a religious state along the lines of Ayatollah Khomeini’s 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. The Brotherhood is reported to have said it is not in favour of a religious Egyptian state and the country’s military says it will not allow one anyway. Political manoeuvres these may be, but they have the potential to unnerve business and show how the removal of a dictator can lead to a dangerous power vacuum.
Political uncertainty is also at the heart of an upsurge in the crime rate since the February revolution. Murder, theft and kidnapping are at the wave's leading edge, according to Egyptian security officials. When the new Interior Minister dissolved the State Security agency, he removed one of the most hated bodies of Mubarak’s regime. But this left behind a timid police force with very low morale. Clearly, relief at the demise of a 30-year reign of terror is being tempered by fear of the instability that has taken its place.
The launch of a new political party by telecommunications tycoon Naguib Sawiris, illustrates the desire of Egyptians to create a new political structure in their country. Other new parties or those previously excluded from Egypt’s political landscape offer promising visions of transformation, but it is clear that many difficult times lie ahead. Restoring the rule of law and getting the economy moving for the benefit of all Egyptians, are two of the most challenging tasks in Egypt.