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Business Analysis and Sales Forecasting - Lesson Plan: 3 x 1 hour lessons
A series of 'off the shelf' lesson plans and resources for use in the classroom. These lessons deal with Business Analysis and Sales Forecasting and are relevant to the following specifications:
- AQA: Module 4
- Edexcel: Unit 4
- OCR: Module 2880
Aim:
These lessons focus on business analysis and sales forecasting techniques. The associated PowerPoint Presentation, Mind Map and Activity give in turn an overview and a practical example of how sales forecasts can be used and the strengths and limitations of them. The context for the Activity is the National Lottery. In recent years, the Lottery has seen fluctuations in its fortunes and attempts to revitalise sales. During the financial year 2004-05, Camelot reported an increase in sales but the variations in sales continue. The Activity is attempting to get students to understand the importance of forecasting as a means of planning, of meeting expected demand, stock control and so on.
The Activity invites students to work at developing some basic analysis techniques through identifying trends (the existence of a rollover, for example, might be the reason for spikes in the trend of lottery ticket sales) and through finding an appropriate method of graphing data and calculating moving averages. The final question asks students to evaluate forecasting; this question expects students to be able to recognise the strengths and limitations of forecasting and to be able to place some value, significance or importance on these to a company like Camelot. The context of Camelot is important - sales forecasting may not be very important for this type of business compared to others but students will need to try to think about the appropriateness of such an analysis method for this company.
Learning Objectives:
At the end of these lessons, students should be able to understand:
- The main methods used to analyse business performance
- How to identify trends in data
- How to calculate averages and moving averages from data
- The implications of analysis for business planning
- The strengths and limitations of forecasting techniques
Resources:
Lesson Structure:
Lesson 1
- Outline the main learning objectives of the series of lessons. (5 minutes)
- Draw on students' previous AS knowledge by asking them to identify, in pairs, the main methods by which a business might analyse its performance (sales figures, share price, market share, etc.) Feed back results to the whole class - briefly discuss the results of student discussions. (10 minutes)
- Focus on the need to get quantifiable data from the types of analysis identified and discuss what methods of quantitative data might be useful to a business - averages, index numbers, nominal data, etc. Discuss the different ways in which a business might present such data to different stakeholders and why different methods might be appropriate for the different groups. (15 minutes)
- Introduce the main features of business analysis via the PowerPoint Presentation. Discuss the points raised in the light of the discussions from the lesson so far. (20 minutes)
- Introduce the Activity and outline the task students will be engaged with during the next lesson. (5 minutes)
- Review key learning points from this lesson. (5 minutes)
Lesson 2
- Review the main points from the previous lesson. (5 minutes)
- Give out the Activity (or direct students to PCs) and set students onto the task. (50 minutes)
- Bring students together to highlight the main points of the lesson and to set the scene for the next lesson - a review and reflection of the learning outcomes of the lessons. (5 minutes)
Lesson 3
- Summarise the points from the previous lesson. Explain that this lesson is about drawing together the learning from the two previous lessons. (5 minutes)
- Start a discussion about the points raised in the questions. (45 minutes)
- What trends did students identify? Why did students identify different trends? What does this tell us about the problems businesses face in establishing and identifying trends?
- Discuss issues relating to the presentation of data - what is appropriate and why?
- What value is there in extrapolating data for a company like Camelot?
- How valuable is sales forecasting? Does it depend on the type of business? Is it more appropriate for some types of business compared to others and if so what types and why?
- Draw together the discussions and summarise the conclusions drawn on the board. (10 minutes)
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