UK Demographics: The Timebomb Still Ticks

For many years the UK has been bracing itself for the implosion that will happen when the nation can no longer support its ageing population. The demographic balance will be tilted too far towards dependency and away from economic activity. The effects will be felt within the health sector, pensions and insurance industries in particular, but the impact on the whole economy is expected to be profound.

So what's going on? Why the doom and gloom? Let's look at the UK's population structure and try to find out.

Go to the TimeWeb sample data (you can do this at any stage in TimeWeb by using the link in the top navigation bar) and retrieve data for UK demographics 1984 to 1999. Download this as comma separated data. If you have problems doing this, click here for an Excel version of the information (demog.xls, Excel spreadsheet, 15K).

Look at the total population table.

Now, draw a stacked bar chart to contain this data.

If you are not sure about how to do this you may want to go to the explanation of component bar charts in the 'Buffing' section of TimeWeb.

Now go to the births and deaths table (Excel spreadsheet, 15K).
Draw a line graph to illustrate the data. Then, by using Excel or other spreadsheet package, trend the data to produce projections for UK births and deaths.

What we haven't been able to do so far here is to place the UK demographic position in an international context. Before you go off to find data that will help you do just that, let's provide some background information, for you to reflect upon:

• Italians tend to stay living in their parents' home longer than most other nationalities.
• The Chinese authorities have enforced a policy of 2 children per couple since the early 1980s.
• France has one of the lowest population density figures in the EU.
• Japan has one of the world's highest population density figures.

Now, use the TimeWeb Explorer to go to the OECD data and gather information on the population and demography of the following countries: France, Italy, Japan and China. (Please note that you will only be able to use the TimeWeb explorer if you study at a UK-based Higher or Further Education college or university)

Consider the UK's demographic position in relation to these other countries. Try to identify two main features of each country's population or demographic structure. What do you feel are the main demographic threats to each country? Think of the effect of conditions within one of the countries upon the level of public spending, and international competitiveness.

For a more complex view of the UK population since the start of the twentieth century, click here for a census-based view of overall population change. (ukpopchange.xls, Excel spreadsheet, 18K)

From studying the table, what equation explains net changes to the population level? You will have to use all the following variables: live births; deaths; net migration.

What about...
Population change = Population at start + Live births - Deaths +/- Net migration?

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