Biz/ed - Copper Tour - Mufulira [ Biz/ed Virtual Developing Country ]

Mufulira

The Causes and Impact of Population Growth

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The population of the Copperbelt towns is growing for two reasons

An increase in the natural rate of population growth
Net inward migration i.e. more people arriving than leaving

The Natural Rate of Population Growth

An increase in the natural rate of population growth occurs because the birth rate of the population i.e. the number of babies being added to the population is greater than the death rate i.e. the number of people who are dying.

In 1997 the crude birth rate was 42.3 per thousand and the death rate was 18.9 per thousand

To calculate the natural rate of population growth rate the following formula is used:

Birth rate - Death rate

100

42.3 - 18.9

100

In the case of 1997 the population therefore grew at a rate of 2.33.

To put this rate in some kind of perspective it is useful to calculate how long it would take for the population to double if it continued to grow at this rate. Mathematicians have worked out that to calculate the rate at which a variable doubles the following formula should be applied.

Doubling rate =	72

	Population growth rate

Thus IF the population of Zambia continued to grow at the present rate it would double in 31 years. Given the high level of poverty that exists amongst the current population, consider the impact of it doubling in such a relatively short time. If the population data for Zambia is compared with MDCs one conclusion seems apparent. The growth rate of the population is far higher in Zambia than many of the high-income countries.

Why is Zambia's population growing so rapidly?
To understand firstly why the population is growing rapidly in Zambia and other LDCs it is necessary to consider the factors influencing the high birth rates and fertility rates

Explaining high fertility rates in Zambia
Trying to understand the reasons for the high fertility rate is complex. The first two or three children are often due to psychological and cultural reasons. Subsequent children are then due to economic reasons such as:

providing labour
provide care for elderly family members

On the Rural Life and Agriculture Tour you can see that during times of drought and worsening poverty there are incentives for women to produce children to provide labour. Poverty and high fertility rates are closely linked. There is also strong relationship between infant mortality and fertility. The lower the level of infant mortality the lower the level of fertility.

Policy Implications
There is considerable debate about appropriate population policy in many LDCs. There are those that argue that populations are growing too quickly and are outstripping the countries resources. Worsening poverty and starvation will be the inevitable result. Others argue that it is a growing population that will provide the labour and the market for a growing economy. Zambia could never be described as an over populated country. It has population density of about 10 people per square km. By comparison the Netherlands has a population density of 379 per square km. However, it is in and around the urban areas that the population is growing at a rapid rate and the problems of uncontrolled population growth are experienced.

Tackling poverty is seen by many economists as the key to lowering infant mortality and consequently population growth. The evidence is clear -raising incomes reduces fertility rates.

Development economists argue strongly that government, multilateral donors and NGOs must support policies that improve medical and public health facilities to the poor. Policies aimed at raising the levels of nutrition amongst the poor cause infant mortality levels to decrease thus diminishing the need to have more children. There is also evidence to suggest that raising the social and economic status of women will reduce fertility rates.

In tandem with these policies designed to alleviate poverty, governments should put resources into initiating and improving family planning programs through educational programmes and providing advice on contraception.

Whilst attempting to change the psychological and social reasons for having children is difficult policies reducing poverty and the need to have children for economic reasons perhaps can be tackled. However, to do this resources are needed to be diverted into poverty reduction programmes.

Economists have produced a number of models of demographic transition, which chart birth and death rates over time in an attempt to understand the dynamics of population.

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