Models of Demographic Transition [ Biz/ed Virtual Developing Country ]

HOME

BACKGROUND

RESOURCES

FIELD TRIPS

Copper Tour

Introduction
Tour Itinerary
Destinations
Kitwe
Chingola
Mufulira
Issues
Theories
Supply Side
Dependency Ratio
Dependency Th.
Economic Effic.
Economic Growth
Models
Fisher Clark
Harrod-Domar
Lewis
Rostow
Demo. Trans.
Circular Flow
Neo-Classical
Popn Pyramids
Price Movts
Privatisation
Causes of Growth
Causes of Infl.
Multinationals
Externalities
Probs of Inflation
Worksheets
Resources

Home

Field Trips

Copper Tour

Models of Demographic Transition

Theories

Models of Demographic Transition

Next theory - Measuring the Circular Flow of Income >>

The Classic Model of Demographic Transition

Reverend Thomas Malthus

The model of demographic transition proposed in the 1940s describes the stages in the relationship between birth and death rates and the overall population change. The growth in the population due to changes in the birth and death rates is called the natural rate of population growth. The model of demographic transition suggested that a population's mortality and fertility would decline as a result of social and economic development. It predicted that all countries would over time go through four demographic transition stages. However with all models it has its limitations and the model has been developed to consider the demographic changes that many LDCs are experiencing.

The four stages of demographic transition in Western Europe

The tables below summarise the factors affecting birth rates and death rates in each stage

Stage 1 : Pre industrialisation: Stable population growth	Stage 2: Rapid population growth	Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth	Stage 4: Stable low population growth
High Birth rates	High Birth rates	Falling Birth rates	Low Birth rates
No or little Family Planning Parents have many children because few survive Many children are needed to work the land Children are a sign of virility Some religious beliefs and cultural traditions encourage large families	As stage 1	Family Planning utilised , contraceptives, abortions, sterilisation and other government incentives A lower infant mortality rates means less pressure to have children Increased mechanisation and industrialisation means less need for labour Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families Emancipation of women
High Death Rates	Falling Death Rates	Death rates Low	Death rates Low
Disease and plague (e.g. bubonic, cholera, kwashiorkor) Famine , uncertain food supplies and poor diet Poor hygiene, no piped clean water or sewage disposal	Improved medical care e.g. vaccinations , hospitals, doctors, new drugs and scientific inventions Improved sanitation and waters supply Improvements in food production in terms of quality and quantity Improved transport to move food and doctors A decrease in child mortality	As stage 2

The model predicts that eventually industrialised countries will have low stable population growth.

Demographic transition in LDCs
If we examine the economy of Zambia it could be argued that they have moved through stage 1 and stage 2. There is also some evidence of a decline in the birth rate, characteristic of stage three, however there are certain fundamental differences between population growth in MDCs and LDCs.

The Birth and Death rates in stage 1 are higher in LDCs that in MDCs
Stage 2 seems to have taken a much shorter time that it took with the MDCs

These two features have been included in a demographic transition model for LDCs by Berelson

Diagram: Demographic transition in less developed countries

Berelson suggests that

There are 3 clear stages rather than 4.
LDCs fall into two categories, Type A and Type B.

Type A countries are those that have experienced economic development and have seen a fall in their birth rate together with a decline in their death rate in Stage 3. Type B countries, typical of many low income LDCs such as Zambia have maintained a high birth rate with a death rate that is levelling off albeit at a higher rate than Type A countries.

Observation of mortality rate statistics in Zambia suggests that the death rate is starting to increase. The Aids epidemic and the worsening poverty are taking their toll.

Next theory - Measuring the Circular Flow of Income >>


	Site Index Contact Us Return to Biz/ed Copyright © 2008	Top of Page Supported by